Credit: Copyright 2010 by The Freedonia Group

The research company Freedonia Group predicts that world-wide hydrogen demand will continue to climb, growing at a 3.4 percent annual pace through 2013.

Oftentimes the term “hydrogen economy” is associated with emerging energy and transportation technologies, but a new report from Freedonia, World Hydrogen, indicates the growth primarily is being driven by petroleum refining enterprises that require more hydrogen to produce low-sulfur fuels. Other big drivers are chemical, semiconductor, float glass, metal components and food industries (remember the margarine commercials referring to hydrogenation?). The report predicts that 475 billion cubic meters will be required in 2013.

Geographically speaking, although North America currently is the world’s largest hydrogen consumer, Freedonia says trends indicate that the Asia/Pacific region will jump from third to first place in the consumption roster. In fact, consumption in the Asia/Pacific region, according to the report, is growing 300 percent faster than in North America.

The 336-page World Hydrogen report is available for $5,300 from Freedonia.

Michigan Economic Development Corp. reports that Dow Chemical plans expansions in wind, solar, advanced battery manufacturing and other projects in Midland, Mich. The projects are expected to total more than $1 billion and create more than 6,900 new jobs, according to Gov. Jennifer Granholm. The company plans to invest $952 million in future projects and has leveraged an additional $161 million from the federal energy department.

The Michigan Strategic Fund board approved a Centers of Energy Excellence designation and a $5 million grant for Dow to establish operations focused on cost-effective carbon-fiber materials for application in the wind energy and transportation sectors. Oak Ridge National Lab will collaborate with Dow. Through ORNL’s participation, the DOE will provide a $5 million match, and Dow will contribute up to $10 million of in-kind resources.

The MSF also designated the Dow project as a “Centers of Energy Excellence.” In 2008, the MSF awarded $43 million to six designated COEEs, and in 2009 the state legislature earmarked and additional $30 million for a second phase of the COEE program.

The MEDC is also touting a report titled, “American Innovation: Manufacturing Low Carbon Technology in the Midwest,” (PDF) released earlier this year. The report uses economic research from Deloitte to estimate that climate and energy policies could create up to 100,000 new jobs in the region and generate additional market revenues of up to $12 billion, boosting state and local tax revenues by over $800 million by 2015.

Today is the last day of ARPA-E’s first big public event - the Energy Innovation Summit. Yesterday, DOE Secretary Steven Chu used the conference to announce that ARPA-E is allocating an additional $100 million in stimulus funds, “to accelerate innovation in green technology, increase America’s competitiveness and create new jobs.”

This is the third round of funding rooted in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

Chu said the new monies would be tartgeted in three areas:

Grid-Scale Rampable Intermittent Dispatchable Storage (GRIDS): Efficient grid-scale energy storage systems, “that provide energy, cost and cycle life comparable to pumped hydropower, but which are modular and can be widely implemented at any location across the power grid.” In particular, ARPA-E is asking for technology prototyping and proof-of-concept R&D efforts for both existing storage technologies and “over-the-horizon” storage concepts.

Agile Delivery of Electrical Power Technology (ADEPT): Materials for advanced in soft magnetics, high-voltage switches and high-density charge storage. In particular, ARPA -E is looking for three things from the ADEPT program: 1) integrated chip-scale power converters for solid-state lighting, microinverters for photovoltaics and single-chip power supplies for computers; 2) cost-effective, kilowatt-scale inverters for grid-tied photovoltaics and variable-speed motors; and 3) solid-state medium-voltage energy converters for solid-state electrical substations and wind-turbine generators.

Building Energy Efficiency Through Innovative Thermodevices (BEET-IT): New approaches to air conditioning buildings that can be retrofitted into existing systems. In particular, ARPA-E is seeking 1) systems with refrigerants with low global-warming potential; 2) more effiecient air conditioning systems for warm and humid climates; and 3) vapor compression AC systems for hot climate.

ARPA-E has already funded 37 projects from its first solicitation for proposals related to energy storage, biofuels, carbon capture, renewable power, building efficiency and vehicles. The DOE division says it is still evaluating nearly 500 concept papers sent in from its second solicitation that focus on biofuels, carbon capture and batteries for electric vehicles.

Today was Bloom Energy’s big media extravaganza and it seems like they were aiming for something on the order of what Apple or Microsoft would try to pull off. The stage was shared by big name politicians (Schwarzenegger and Powell) the online gods (Google and eBay), the movers and shakers in the investor class (Kleiner Perkings Caulfield & Byers and Morgan Stanley) and an impressive array of megabrand customers (FedEx, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Staples and Bank of America).

Generally speaking this is all great stuff for those of us in the ceramics business. Incredible, really.

But what did anybody actually learn? Maybe that Bloom has a great marketing team? But, we already knew that was true based on Sunday’s exposure, courtesy of 60 Minutes.

What new information did we get about Bloom’s technology/engineering achievements and business plan? Not much.

It’s one thing to try to throw a coming-out party like Apple would. It’s another thing to pull it off when you have no track record of actually bringing an insanely great product to market at a price people are willing to pay, all while beating your competitors to the punch.

Some of the technology questions may be relatively easy. One expert tells me the ceramic electrolyte layer is is probably yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ), the green “ink” is NiO-YSZ serving as the anode (NexTech already offers an ink like this) and the black “ink” is a cathode layer made of lanthanum strontium manganite (LSM). What’s less clear is how Bloom solved stack expansion and seal problems that plague other SOFC makers. (Solved them in the sense that these units will perform reliably for years and years.)

But, Jonathan Fahey at Forbes, gets closer to the heart of the matter:

So while Bloom Energy may have some very promising technology to show off, we almost certainly will hear that its business hinges on a plan to lower the cost of its fuel cell by some large amount in some short period of time. It could be that Bloom Energy has the money and the brains to pull it off. Maybe it has already pulled it off. But if that business plan sounds familiar, it’s because that is the same refrain heard from solar companies, biofuels companies and fuel cell makers around the world.

[. . .]

It’s difficult to design components that can survive for decades in those conditions, especially the ancillary components that take the electricity out of the cell - for cheap. Then there’s the bugaboo of many a clean tech company: Designing a manufacturing process that can produce enough high quality devices to push costs down.

United Technologies produces a phosphoric acid fuel cell commercially and is working on a number of other fuel cell programs. Its fuel cell sells for $4,500 per kilowatt, and the company says it needs to get to $2,500 before it can be a real success

“We’ve figured out the durability problems,” says Mike Brown, a vice president at UTC Power, the United Technologies unit that makes fuel cells. “We haven’t figured out the cost problem yet.”

Fahey thinks that the unsubsidized cost of Bloom’s systems is about $9,000-$10,000 per kilowatt, so its not clear why Bloom’s units would be financially sucessfull when UTC Power is struggling.

The most recent edition of China’s Refractories magazine (published by the Luoyang Institute of Refractories Research) reports a some interesting changes in the trends in basic manufacturing in the nation.

For example, CR reports that the total output of China’s refractories industries dropped over 13% in the period of Jan. 09 - Sept. 09 compared to the same period in 2008. The production of dense-shaped refractory products (about 3/5 of the total) dropped 11% and monolithic refractories (about 1/3 of the total) dropped 18%. Similarly, the country’s import of alumina- and silica-based raw materials (e.g., bauxite) is down nearly 15% in the nine-month period.

On the other hand, China’s total alumina imports have increased nearly 17% in the corresponding period. The magazine doesn’t say it, but the obvious conclusion is that much of the alumina is going to aluminum production and not refractories. Aluminum output in China is expected to grow by 9% in 2010.

Although China has internal bauxite resources, it’s internal demand has exceeded this supply for some time, and the country depends primarily on Australia but also to a lesser extent on India for alumina imports. This enormous demand for alumina has pushed up trading prices for these raw materials and these price hikes have caused complaints by American refractory makers.

On other fronts, China’s cement output increased 18.2% in the first three quarters of 2009, and flat glass output increased by nearly 2%. While both of these materials are barometers of construction and building activity, the noticeable difference in the two amounts appears to be primarily due to existing high inventories of flat glass products. These glass inventories dropped nearly 30% in the same period.

Interestingly, CR reports that while crude steel product production increased over 10% in the first ten months of 2009, it says that, “Higher output is increasingly distorting the supply and demand position and crippling the margins of enterprises…The problem of overcapacity may get worse between the fourth quarter of 2009 and early 2010.”

However, the overcapacity situation is not expected to last long. China’s entire building industry is expected to benefit from massive government infrastructure spending on railroads, highways, airports, irrigation projects and rural infrastructure. Some estimates of the infrastructure projects report that nearly $.6 trillion will be spent.

. . . adding, lest anyone be confused, what China means by “infrastructure investments” and how the folks in Washington, DC use the same words are worlds apart. h/t to Atrios.